Coffee as a Geopolitical Asset: Who Really Controls the Supply?
Coffee looks harmless in a cup. Yet it sits at the intersection of climate, trade, finance, shipping routes, and national strategy. A drought in Brazil, a policy change in Viet Nam, a war in the Middle East, or a new European regulation can change what a roaster pays, what a café charges, and what a farmer earns. Coffee is not controlled by one country or one company. It is controlled by a network and the power inside that network is unevenly distributed. The countries that set the supply No country controls coffee entirely, but two countries come close to controlling its direction. Brazil produces nearly 40% of the world’s coffee and has major influence over global supply and prices. Viet Nam is the world’s dominant Robusta producer and, together with Brazil, accounts for a large share of global output; the Coffee Barometer estimates that Brazil contributes 35% of supply and Viet Nam 17%, meaning three countries account for 60% of global supply.[1][2] That concentration cre...
